N-butanol

2024 n-butanol semi-annual analysis: supply and demand both increased in the first half of the year, and supply increased in the second half of the year

In the first half of 2024, China's n-butanol industry had good overall profits and high capacity utilization. The slow recovery of the terminal industry has caused the mainstream downstream of n-butanol to start production at a medium to high level, ensuring stable market demand. The expected release of new production capacity will have an impact on mentality, production plants are operating in a low inventory state, market participants are cautious in high-level operations, and stocking is cautious. For this reason, n-butanol fluctuated in the first half of the year.

In the second half of 2024, Zhejiang Satellite n-butanol unit was put into production, and the n-butanol-related capacity increased by 15.18%. The supply pattern and supply circulation of the n-butanol industry in the second half of the year will change. In the second half of the year, the supply of n-butanol increased, while demand grew slowly, breaking the tight market supply pattern.

In the first half of 2024, the import volume was the highest in February, with a total import volume of about 26,000 tons in February. It is reported that due to the high domestic spot price of n-butanol in January and February, the import spread was opened. At the same time, the domestic n-butanol factory equipment was overhauled and fluctuated and reduced production in January and February, and the supply volume was low. For this reason, some downstream users imported n-butanol to ease. March was the lowest import in the first half of the year, with 7,000 tons imported in March. In March, the domestic market recovered with the recovery of equipment and supply volume, and the overall recovery of the downstream was slow after the Spring Festival, and the purchase intention of its raw materials was low, resulting in a sharp drop in prices and the closure of the import spread.

From January to May, the domestic n-butanol export volume gradually increased after March. After the domestic n-butanol market price in March fell sharply, the export arbitrage space expanded. At the same time, due to the shutdown of OQ Chemical at the end of February, the supply of n-butanol in the European market was tight. From April, the monthly export volume of n-butanol exceeded 3,000 tons, with a total export of 3,400 tons in April, and the export volume in June is expected to be around 5,000 tons. In the first half of the year, the main export countries of n-butanol were the Netherlands, Turkey, Pakistan, the Netherlands and Vietnam.

From the supply side, some mainstream factories are scheduled for maintenance in the second half of the year, and the supply volume is reduced. However, considering the expectation of new equipment, the overall supply growth in the fourth quarter is obvious. On the downstream demand side, it is expected that the downstream will maintain a medium to high operating load in the second half of the year. At the same time, the new equipment is expected to be put into production, and the downstream bearish atmosphere will increase. The inventory of raw materials will continue to be low, and the purchase will be based on rigid demand, and the operation will be cautious. At the same time, in terms of imports and exports, due to the suspension of the tax reduction and exemption policy, the import volume is expected to gradually decrease. As domestic prices fall and the supply volume increases in the later period, the export price difference is expected to increase, and the export volume is expected to increase.